Areas of Polar Coronal Holes from 1996 Through 2010

Polar coronal holes (PCHs) trace the magnetic variability of the Sun throughout the solar cycle. Their size and evolution have been studied as proxies for the global magnetic field. We present measurements of the PCH areas from 1996 through 2010, derived from an updated perimeter-tracing method and two synoptic-map methods. The perimeter tracing method detects PCH boundaries along the solar limb, using full-disk images from the SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (SOHO/EIT). One synoptic-map method uses the line-of-sight magnetic field from the SOHO/Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) to determine the unipolarity boundaries near the poles. The other method applies thresholding techniques to synoptic maps created from EUV image data from EIT. The results from all three methods suggest that the solar maxima and minima of the two hemispheres are out of phase. The maximum PCH area, averaged over the methods in each hemisphere, is approximately 6 % during both solar minima spanned by the data (between Solar Cycles 22/23 and 23/24). The northern PCH area began a declining trend in 2010, suggesting a downturn toward the maximum of Solar Cycle 24 in that hemisphere, while the southern hole remained large throughout 2010

Water Vapor, Temperature, and Ice Particles in Polar Mesosphere as Measured by SABER/TIMED and OSIRIS/Odin Instruments

Although many new details on the properties of mesospheric ice particles that farm Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs) and also cause polar mesospheric summer echoes have been recently revealed, certain aspects of mesospheric ice microphysics and dynamics still remain open. The detailed relation between PMC parameters and properties of their environment, as well as interseasonal and interhemispheric differences and trends in PMC properties that are possibly related to global change, are among those open questions. In this work, mesospheric temperature and water vapor concentration measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite are used to study the properties of PMCs with respect to the surrounding atmosphere. The cloud parameters, namely location, brightness, and altitude, are obtained from the observations made by the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS) on the Odin satellite. About a thousand of simultaneous common volume measurements made by SABER and OSIRIS in both hemispheres from 2002 until 2008 are used. The correlation between PMC brightness (and occurrence rate) and temperatures at PMC altitudes and at the mesopause is analysed. The relation between PMC parameters, frost point temperature, and gaseous water vapor content in and below the cloud is also discussed. Interseasonal and interhemispheric differences and trends in the above parameters, as well as in PMC peak altitudes and mesopause altitudes are evaluated

Destruction of Sun-Grazing Comet C-2011 N3 (SOHO) Within the Low Solar Corona

Observations of comets in Sun-grazing orbits that survive solar insolation long enough to penetrate into the Suns inner corona provide information on the solar atmosphere and magnetic field as well as on the makeup of the comet. On 6 July 2011, the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) observed the demise of comet C2011 N3 (SOHO) within the low solar corona in five wavelength bands in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV). The comet penetrated to within 0.146 solarradius (100,000 kilometers) of the solar surface before its EUV signal disappeared

C02(nu2)-0 Quenching Rate Coefficient Derived from Coincidental Fort Collins Lidar and SABER Measurements

Among the processes governing the energy balance in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), the quenching of CO2(V2) vibrational levels in collisions with oxygen atoms plays an important role. However, neither the rate coefficient of this process (k(CO2O)) nor the atomic oxygen concentrations ([O]) in the MLT are well known. The discrepancy between k(CO2O) measured in the lab and retrieved from atmospheric measurements is of about factor of 2.5. At the same time, the discrepancy between [O] in the MLT measured by different instruments is of the same order of magnitude. In this work we used a synergy of a ground based lidar and satellite infrared radiometer to make a further step in understanding of the physics of the region. In this study we apply the night- and daytime temperatures between 80 and 110 km measured by the Colorado State University narrow-band sodium (Na) lidar located at Fort Collins, Colorado for retrieving the product of k(CO2-O) x [O] from the limb radiances in the 15 micron channel measured by the SABER/TIMED instrument for nearly simultaneous common volume measurements of both instruments within +/-1 degree in latitude, +/-2 degrees in longitude and +/-10 minutes in time. We derive k(CO2-O) and its possible variation range from the retrieved product by utilizing the [O] values measured by the SABER and other instruments

Co2(nu2)-o Quenching Rate Coefficient Derived from Coincidental SABER-TIMED and Fort Collins Lidar Observations of the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere

Among the processes governing the energy balance in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), the quenching of CO2(nu2) vibrational levels by collisions with O atoms plays an important role. However, there is a factor of 3-4 discrepancy between the laboratory measurements of the CO2-O quenching rate coefficient, k(sub VT),and its value estimated from the atmospheric observations. In this study, we retrieve k(sub VT) in the altitude region85-105 km from the coincident SABER/TIMED and Fort Collins sodium lidar observations by minimizing the difference between measured and simulated broadband limb 15 micron radiation. The averaged k(sub VT) value obtained in this work is 6.5 +/- 1.5 X 10(exp -12) cubic cm/s that is close to other estimates of this coefficient from the atmospheric observations.However, the retrieved k(sub VT) also shows altitude dependence and varies from 5.5 1 +/-1 10(exp -12) cubic cm/s at 90 km to 7.9 +/- 1.2 10(exp -12) cubic cm/s at 105 km. Obtained results demonstrate the deficiency in current non-LTE modeling of the atmospheric 15 micron radiation, based on the application of the CO2-O quenching and excitation rates, which are linked by the detailed balance relation. We discuss the possible model improvements, among them accounting for the interaction of the non-thermal oxygen atoms with CO2 molecules

The Challenge of Machine Learning in Space Weather Nowcasting and Forecasting

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand Challenge review paper is focused on the present and future role of machine learning in space weather. The purpose is twofold. On one hand, we will discuss previous works that use ML for space weather forecasting, focusing in particular on the few areas that have seen most activity: the forecasting of geomagnetic indices, of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbits, of solar flares occurrence, of coronal mass ejection propagation time, and of solar wind speed. On the other hand, this paper serves as a gentle introduction to the field of machine learning tailored to the space weather community and as a pointer to a number of open challenges that we believe the community should undertake in the next decade. The recurring themes throughout the review are the need to shift our forecasting paradigm to a probabilistic approach focused on the reliable assessment of uncertainties, and the combination of physics-based and machine learning approaches, known as gray-box.Comment: under revie

The SDO Education and Outreach (E/PO) Program: Changing Perceptions One Program at a Time

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) program began as a series of discrete efforts implemented by each of the instrument teams and has evolved into a well-rounded program with a full suite of national and international programs. The SDO E/PO team has put forth much effort in the past few years to increase our cohesiveness by adopting common goals and increasing the amount of overlap between our programs. In this paper, we outline the context and overall philosophy for our combined programs, present a brief overview of all SDO E/PO programs along with more detailed highlight of a few key programs, followed by a review of our results up to date. Concluding is a summary of the successes, failures, and lessons learned that future missions can use as a guide, while further incorporating their own content to enhance the public's knowledge and appreciation of NASA?s science and technology as well as its benefit to society

Revised Correlation between Odin/OSIRIS PMC Properties and Coincident TIMED/SABER Mesospheric Temperatures

The Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS) instrument on board the Odin satellite detects Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs) through the enhancement in the limb-scattered solar radiance. The Sounding of the Atmosphere using the Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on board the TIMED satellite is a limb scanning infrared radiometer that measures temperature and vertical profiles and energetic parameters for minor constituents in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The combination of OSIRIS and SABER data has been previously used to statistically derive thermal conditions for PMC existence [Petelina et al., 2005]. a, A.A. Kutepov, W.D. Pesnell, In this work, we employ the simultaneous common volume measurements of PMCs by OSIRIS and temperature profiles measured by SABER for the Northern Hemisphere summers of 2002-2005 and corrected in the polar region by accounting for the vibrational-vibrational energy exchange among the CO2 isotopes [Kutepov et al., 2006]. For each of 20 coincidences identified within plus or minus 1 degree latitude, plus or minus 2 degrees longitude and less than 1 hour time the frost point temperatures were calculated using the corresponding SABER temperature profile and water vapor densities of 1,3, and 10 ppmv. We found that the PMC presence and brightness correlated only with the temperature threshold that corresponds to the frost point. The absolute value of the temperature below the frost point, however, didn't play a significant role in the intensity of PMC signal for the majority of selected coincidences. The presence of several bright clouds at temperatures above the frost point is obviously related to the limitation of the limb geometry when some near- or far-field PMCs located at higher (and warmer) altitudes appear to be at lower altitudes

Automated Detection of EUV Polar Coronal Holes During Solar Cycle 23

A new method for automated detection of polar coronal holes is presented. This method, called perimeter tracing, uses a series of 171, 195, and 304 \AA\ full disk images from the Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on SOHO over solar cycle 23 to measure the perimeter of polar coronal holes as they appear on the limbs. Perimeter tracing minimizes line-of-sight obscurations caused by the emitting plasma of the various wavelengths by taking measurements at the solar limb. Perimeter tracing also allows for the polar rotation period to emerge organically from the data as 33 days. We have called this the Harvey rotation rate and count Harvey rotations starting 4 January 1900. From the measured perimeter, we are then able to fit a curve to the data and derive an area within the line of best fit. We observe the area of the northern polar hole area in 1996, at the beginning of solar cycle 23, to be about 4.2% of the total solar surface area and about 3.6% in 2007. The area of the southern polar hole is observed to be about 4.0% in 1996 and about 3.4% in 2007. Thus, both the north and south polar hole areas are no more than 15% smaller now than they were at the beginning of cycle 23. This compares to the polar magnetic field measured to be about 40% less now than it was a cycle ago.Comment: 18 pagers, 7 figures, accepted to Solar Physic